A partial government shutdown.A war in Iran. Warnings about sleeper cells. And in the middle of it all:Americans left to wonder if their travel plans are safe.
Those concerns were echoed in part by former Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, who toldCNBCthe nation is operating in a "heightened security threat environment because of the fact that Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism."
Meanwhile,Transportation Security Administrationofficers charged with screening airline passengers for security threats are working without pay − another potential worry for air travel security.
Johnson didn't say travelers actually are at a higher risk. But he is among experts raising a number of concerns, including "lone actors inspired by terrorist organizations."
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Though the potential targets are not limited to air travel and some experts say the risk to aviation remains low, Johnson said threats could come at a time when TSA is under "a tremendous amount of stress."
Roughly 50,000 TSA officersare working without regular pay after Congress failed to pass funding for DHS, which oversees TSA, sparking the partial shutdown in mid-February. TSA officers missed their first full paycheck March 13 after receiving partial checks on Feb. 28.
"These are the people we depend upon to look for bombs and explosive devices on the airplane you're about to get on with your family," Johnson said. "They live paycheck to paycheck when they're getting paid. Morale traditionally in TSA is low and now we're forcing them to go to work without being paid at all."
The Department of Homeland Security referred questions to the White House, where an official speaking on background said the entire administration is closely monitoring all intelligence and remains vigilant to deter potential threats if they arise.
The risk of terrorism has risen due to Iran war, experts say
Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who compiled the first database of suicide attacks around the world after the terrorist hijackings on Sept. 11, 2001, told USA TODAY the threat of terror campaigns would grow in the coming months.
Pape said threats would escalate since the start of the war through the economic shocks to the oil supply and leading toward the growing expectation of terror attacks.
"The longer this war goes on, the greater the risk," Pape said. "That's what the Trump administration has bitten off."
Pape, who continues to track terror at the University of Chicago's Project on Security and Threats, has aSubstack called "The Escalation Trap"warning about the implications of the Iran war. He said a core driver for terror campaigns is when the attacker believes a foreign government is trying to change the attacker's political system, such as with Israel's control over southern Lebanon or the U.S. strikes on Iran.
"You put those two things together, it's hardly a surprise we have a series of seven or eight events since Saturday Feb. 28," Pape said, such as theshooting at a bar in Austin, Texas, and theattack on a Michigan synagogue. "The full dangers will start to materialize in the coming months, if it goes on."
Jeff Price, an aviation security expert who is a professor at Metropolitan State University in Denver, said the threat of domestic terror attacks from Iran is "absolutely" higher because of the war.
"The war in Iran can inspire attacks from people who may have been on the brink of committing a terrorist act, and the war emboldens them to finally crossing that line," Price told USA TODAY. "The war motivates sympathizers, lone actors and groups already in the U.S. to conduct retaliatory attacks against government agencies, major infrastructure, and other targets of opportunity."
Elizabeth Stephens, managing director ofGeopolitical Risk Advisory, agreed that the risk of an increase of threats across the country from "lone wolf" actors have risen due to the conflict in Iran. If they attack, she said these perpetrators are likely to use guns or improvised explosive devices.
"The potential for suicide bombers coming from Iran is high now, because that's one way in which they can effectively attack the U.S.," Stephens said.
More:US is 'on top' of possible Iran sleeper cells, Trump says. What are they?
Security officials say "lone wolf" terrorists are a perennial concern because of thedifficulty identifying and thwarting someoneacting on their own to hurt Americans.
Omar Mateen, 29, of Fort Pierce, Florida, was suspected of links to the Islamic State after hekilled 49 people and injured 53 others in an Orlando night-club shootingon June 2, 2016. Mateen worked in security and the FBI had investigated him in 2013 for making "inflammatory comments" at work. In 2014, he again came to the FBI's attention because of an association with Moner Mohammad Abusalha, an American who carried out a suicide bombing in Syria that year, but the relationship was determined to be minimal.
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The attack in Florida came after a husband-wife shooting team unleashed a hail of gunfire in San Bernardino, California.Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malikhad a new baby girl and lived in a prosperous community. But they stockpiled guns, ammunition and bombs before shooting 14 people to death and wounding 20 others at a holiday party Dec. 2, 2015, at a center for developmentally disabled people.
Iran has long targeted the US, but fear of 'sleeper cells' is rising
Iran and its network of proxies have targeted the United States for decades, according toGeorge Washington University's Project on Extremism. Iranian assassinations date to the 1980 killing of a dissident in Bethesda, Maryland.
In more recent years, Iran targeted U.S. diplomats and high-ranking officials. Tensions escalated after the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran on Feb. 28.
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth told reporters March 2the military is prepared for terrorists who might try to attack the United States. He said the Iranian regime "seeks to export that ideology and try to sow terror."
"We're ready for that," Hegseth said. "We've seen those types of folks before and the American people can rest assured that we're vigilant on that."
President Donald Trump told reporters March 9 in Miamithat Iran has also been trying "for a long time" to activate so-called"sleeper cells" of long-dormant terrorists hiding in the United States.Trump urged Democrats to reopen DHS because the partial shutdown hinders the government's ability to combat terrorists.
"We know a lot about them, but the shutdown doesn't allow us to do what we have to do," Trump said.
Sleeper cells don't have to be highly organized to be successful, Price said.
"Sleeper cells are definitely a concern," Price said. "Even loosely organized small ad hoc groups can get their act together enough to attempt an attack."
Threat to aviation is 'very, very low,' some experts say
The funding lapse at DHS has raised concerns about aviation safety as TSA staffing shortages and absenteeism loom and airport security linesstretch longer. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on social media that "300 [TSA] officers quit" amid the funding lapse.
While the lack of funding for TSA is a concern, the probability of an attack on a U.S. airport or airplane, particularly from a lone wolf actor, is still "very, very low" considering the high level of sophistication needed to get past security, Stephens said.
"Staff shortages and long lines and low morale always increase risk, but they're increasing it by a fraction of a percent because the security at U.S. airports is of such a high standard," said Stephens. "But to me it seems nonsensical that a government wouldn't pay its security staff."
Hassan Shahidi, president and CEO of the nonprofit Flight Safety Foundation, echoed that sentiment saying he is confident that TSA could handle any potential increase in threats to air travel.
Shahidi said TSA has greatly strengthened its screening process in recent years and the technology, procedures and protocols in place aren't going to change because of the partial shutdown. If less officers show up for work, he said it will slow down that process and could even lead toflight cuts like those seen during the government shutdown in late 2025.
TSA previously told USA TODAY "travelers are facing TSA lines of up to nearly 3 hours long at some major airports, causing missed flights and massive delays during peak travel."
But the delays won't make passengers less safe, according to Shahidi, who recently traveled through the Atlanta airport, one of the major hubs that has reportedly seen wait times exceed an hour during peak periods.
"It's going to create inconvenience for the passengers and delays and that's certainly a concern," Shahidi said. "But from a safety perspective, we don't really see an issue there."
Other experts weren't so sure.
Price said the risk toward aviation is greater because of the symbolism, potentially generating a massive response on the traveling public. A bad actor could, for example, "effectively shut down the US aviation system with a bag full of burner phones by calling in bomb threats all day long," Price said.
"TSA not getting paid represents a significant risk to the traveling public," Price said. "When security personnel are worrying about where their next meal will come from and how they will take care of their family, they aren't thinking about their job."
Contributing:Zach Wichter, USA TODAY
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Are flights safe? Terror concerns grow amid Iran war, TSA shutdown.
