On the Friday, March 13, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast:Bracket season is almost here. With conference tournaments underway and Selection Sunday looming, which teams look ready to make a deep run and which powerhouses might miss the field entirely? USA TODAY College Sports Reporter Paul Myerberg joins The Excerpt to break down the tournament picture, including Florida's title defense, potential Cinderella teams and the NBA prospects who could steal the spotlight.
Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it.This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.
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Dana Taylor:
March Madness is just around the corner, and that means brackets, buzzer beaters, and the annual scramble to figure out which teams are contenders and which ones might bust your bracket. Can the defending Champion Florida Gators men's basketball make another title run? Which powerhouse programs might be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday, and which NBA prospects could turn the tournament into their breakout moment?
Hello, and welcome to USA TODAY's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Friday, March 13th, 2026. Joining me to preview the men's NCAA tournament is USA TODAY College Sports Reporter Paul Myerberg. Thanks for coming on The Excerpt, Paul.
Paul Myerberg:
Oh, thank you so much for having me.
Dana Taylor:
Paul, let's zoom out first. What kind of March Madness are we heading into this year? Is there a clear favorite or does this feel like a wide open field?
Paul Myerberg:
Yeah, it kind of feels like both, and I know that's hedging my answer, but at the same time you have clear favorites, you have maybe at least four, maybe six, if you're being optimistic, maybe eight teams. And within that, there's a very wide open competition for who you think is the best team of the country or who you think can win the national championship. Those eight teams, I would say, are kind of sitting in first class. And then you have another 60 teams, 75 teams, just way back in coach. That's the separation that we're seeing now.
Yeah, there are really talented teams who are not on the bubble, but maybe back off the top one or two seeds who could come up and win this national championship, but we're really hyper-focused on these specific handful, handful-plus of teams. And the odds are at this point that the national champion will come from this very small group.
Dana Taylor:
The Florida Gators are coming in as the defending national champions. How realistic is it for them to repeat and what would have to go right for that to happen?
Paul Myerberg:
It's a really interesting team and it's a team that has evolved in a really interesting way. If you think back to last March and last early April, for your listeners to remember the tournament, this was a team that was led by a very singular talent named Walter Clayton. And Walter Clayton was maybe six feet in sneakers. He was not the biggest guy on the court, but he was someone who every time Florida was in trouble, they needed someone to make a play to provide a spark, he really carried that team and was the MVP of the Final Four and had a historic NCAA tournament. And it took Florida some time to find themselves and discover who they were.
So if you had asked me this question maybe a month to a month and a half ago, I think the answer would've been no, because Florida was not playing like a national championship team. They had a lot of holes and I don't think they knew who they were yet, but this group has really rallied. They're on an extended winning streak right now. Players like Alex Condon have grown into leadership roles. Rueben Chinyelu, who's their big man in the middle, is a veteran, experienced guy who's extremely physical. At this point, Florida's in that small group of teams that I mentioned, those six to eight teams when you think you win a national championship. And we'll see how they do in the SCC, that conference tournament. But as of right now, the arrow is really pointing up on Florida.
And it's funny, there was a time for about two decades where very few teams even competed to go back to back. It was seen as one of the great challenges in college sports. We had UConn do it in '23, '24. I think Florida's got a really excellent chance at this point to repeat. And considering where they were in maybe January into early February, it would be really an incredible achievement for this specific team to follow in last year's footsteps and cut down the nuts again in Indianapolis.
Dana Taylor:
Paul, Duke is always a school mentioned during March Madness and they're a number one seed. Are there any other blue bloods you are watching ahead of the tournament?
Paul Myerberg:
Yeah, Duke is the number one seed very likely this year. They might even be the top overall seed. They're extremely good. I'm looking at blue bloods who are kind of on the opposite end of the spectrum. These are three teams who are historic powers who are not going to be one seeds. They'll be in the tournament, but it's just up in the air how they're going to do. And that's North Carolina, Kansas, and Kentucky. North Carolina has had injury problems. When they are healthy, they're extremely good, and I think they're going to be healthy come March or come March Madness. So they're a team to watch. Kansas is hit or miss, very talented. We'll talk about one of their players later on as a draft prospect named Darryn Peterson.
Kentucky is someone that I'm really watching because they are so hit or miss. Supposedly, and we don't know these numbers because they're impossible to access, but supposedly Kentucky has the most expensive roster. Nowadays with NIL, you can essentially pay for players. Kentucky has done that, and it's become a bit of a cautionary tale because Kentucky went out and developed and purchased a roster that resembles, in some respects, an all-star roster of established players mixed with five-star recruits, and Kentucky doesn't really know who they are or what they can be. So that's a team that I'm watching. If it clicks, and there's no reason to think that it will, but if it clicks, Kentucky is a team that could be very, very dangerous.
At the same time, like I said, we're waiting for it to click. And if they get ejected in the opening round as a seven seed or an eight seed, it's going to be a difficult off-season for the Wildcats and for Coach Mark Pope.
Dana Taylor:
Who are the teams that look built to make a deep run this year? What separates those programs from the rest of the field?
Paul Myerberg:
That's a really great question. And I think just to tackle the second part, what separates a great regular season team, there are a lot of really good regular season teams from a great tournament team is coaching, it's experience, and its execution. And it's not really so much depth. You don't really need to go nine players deep in the tournament. Very rarely do teams do that. A lot of times teams that win a national championship just go seven deep or eight deep. So the teams that I'm looking at are teams that are really strong through your sixth, your seventh guy, have made recent tournament runs, they know what it takes, and are well coached and they know who they are and they have an identity.
So let's just name a few. Duke, we touched on. Arizona, they were the last unbeaten major conference program. UConn won two of the last three national championships. Michigan, Iowa State, and Houston. I think those are the six teams that I look at right now. And Florida, obviously, six or seven teams I look at right now and I say, "Okay, these are the teams that are go deep into March." And what they all have in common is, like I said, recent postseason success, singular talents who can carry a team on an off night, and a coach who knows what he is doing, knows how to press the right buttons. So as I said in the start, if I had to put my chips on the table and say it's either one of these teams or the field, I don't sweat it. It's one of those teams to me that'll win the national championship.
Dana Taylor:
Some conferences look especially strong this season. Are there leagues that could end up dominating the bracket or sending a surprising number of teams into the Sweet 16?
Paul Myerberg:
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There are a few conferences who I think are going to make noise, and I think they're going to make noise for different reasons. There's the Big 12, and the Big 12 is not as deep as other leagues, but they're really top-heavy. That's because they have Arizona, they have Houston, they have Iowa State. And those are three teams, like I said, who could win it all. And that's a really good top three. You could see all three of those teams in the elite eight. I mean, you could conceivably see two of those teams in the final four, maybe get all three depending on how the seating and the brackets shake out. That's one league that is very top-heavy.
Two leagues that are deeper but don't have that really thick upper crust would be theBig 10and the SEC. I think both of those leagues will challenge to have the most teams in the bracket. SEC last year had 14. They're not going to get there this year, probably more like nine or 10, similarly with the Big 10. The Big 10 and the SEC have teams at the top. They have an Alabama, they have a Florida, they have a Michigan, they have a Michigan State, but that's more about the depth. So if you look at the Sweet 16, I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10, the SEC make up half of that, maybe make up nine of the 16 teams with another few from the Big 12. So I would focus on those three leagues.
One league on just quickly on the other end of the spectrum, a couple years ago, the Big East was dominating this tournament. They had a budget teams, the elite eight. Obviously UConn went on to win the whole thing. This year, the Big East might get three teams in the bracket unless you have an upset in the conference tournament. That's UConn, that's St. John's, and Villanova. So it has a different feel. You might see two of those teams get to the elite eight, but the Big East doesn't have that kind of depth that we're used to seeing from the conference in the recent pass.
Dana Taylor:
Every year we see a few big name programs sweating it out on Selection Sunday. Which name teams are in real danger of missing the tournament this year?
Paul Myerberg:
There are two big names that could miss the tournament. If I had to guess, at least one of them definitely will, probably both of them will down the line. That's Indiana and Auburn. We might know Indiana now is a football school, amazingly, because they just won 16 and 0 and won the national championship back in January. Indiana basketball is historically one of the flag bearers for this sport. They're really bad. They're really, really bad and it's causing a lot of hand wringing in Bloomington waiting for September to roll around. So, Indiana, I think is on the outside looking in now. As it stands, they've probably got to win two games in the Big 10 tournament to make the field. It feels really unlikely.
Auburn, similarly, they have played a really tough schedule, but just the wins aren't there. They're hovering around 500 right now. They've got a terrible record against teams that are at the very top of the SEC and in the top 25. So they're going to be sweating it out. Both those teams, like I said, I would guess that neither of them make it, and instead they're watching someone like Santa Clara play in their place. And that's going to be difficult for Indiana and their fan base, for example, to swallow.
Dana Taylor:
Well, how much did these conference tournaments actually change the bracket picture? Can a team still play its way in or out at this stage?
Paul Myerberg:
Definitely. And it's interesting to think about how individual conferences are impacted by their tournament. For example, like I mentioned the Big Ten and the SEC. Teams in that conference by and large are playing in the conference tournament for bragging rights and for a banner, but also for where their seating will be in the tournament because most of them are officially in the field. There's a chance that Ole Miss might come up and win the conference tournament and steal a bid from somewhere else. It just feels unlikely, just like in the Big 10. Why people love these conference tournaments and why they're just so caught up and wrapped up in them is because the unpredictability and because there are so many leagues where it's one and done, meaning that the only team that's getting in is your conference champion. And there are a lot of leagues. There are more leagues that are like that than not basically in division one.
So for me, for example, I live in Brooklyn, New York. Down the street for me is Long Island University. Long Island University is not making the NCAA tournament as an at large bid, meeting as a team that doesn't win their conference tournament. So they're playing in the Northeastern Conference Tournament. Every game matters. Every possession matters. Every shot matters. Every defensive stop matters because if you lose to whomever on whatever night, the season's over. Pack your bags, clean out your locker, go to class, and we'll see you in a couple months. And that's just so dramatic to me. And it's why people love March Madness. So when you watch conference tournaments, Big Ten and SEC, it's a lot of fun. The competition's at a high level, the level of play is excellent, but I love watching The MAC, and the MEAC, and the Southern Conference because it's live or die. Every single moment matters. So yeah, for those leagues, the conference tournament is absolutely everything. It's just everything.
Dana Taylor:
March Madness is often where NBA prospects introduce themselves to a national audience. Who are the top NBA Draft prospects we should be watching out for in this tournament?
Paul Myerberg:
Yeah, there are three. And I'll start by saying this. According to draft pundits and prognosticators, this is the deepest NBA Draft in terms of top-level lottery picks in a decade or maybe more, so there's a lot of attention on this year's draft class. There's still no doubt that there are three players who rise above the rest. That's Darryn Peterson at Kansas, Cameron Boozer at Duke, and AJ Dybantsa at Brigham Young. Each in their own way is a special talent. Darryn Peterson, he's had injury issues, but when he's playing and healthy, he's probably a number one overall pick in just an unstoppable score. Cameron Boozer, his father, Carlos Boozer, was an NBA All-Star. A big man for Duke, 20 points, 10 rebounds for assist. If he averages that amount through the end of regular season, he'll be the first freshman to do that since Larry Bird in the late 70s.
And then Dybantsa at Brigham Young, BYU is not a place where five-star basketball recruits go to, just historically. AJ went there and he's been the top scorer in the country. And if he leaves the nation scoring, he'll be the third freshman in the history of the NCAA to do so. So those are three guys that if you're just a casual fan and you flip on CBS or truTV on a Thursday or a Friday in a couple weeks, watch those guys because you'll be watching them on Amazon and on Thursday night on NBC for the next 10 years.
Dana Taylor:
Every year there's at least one Cinderella story, Paul. What kinds of teams tend to make those runs? And do you see any potential bracket busters this year?
Paul Myerberg:
Yeah, so Cinderella, it's a very, very narrow definition. Duke cannot be a Cinderella. We have to agree on that. Duke might think of themselves sometimes as plucky little underdogs. No, you're not Cinderella. You have to be very, very specific. You have to come out of nowhere. You have to have not achieved anything of late. You have to be discounted. And it helps if you have a bunch of guys who look like they shouldn't be sharing the court with Cameron Boozer or Darryn Peterson. Two teams who are really good, who have great records against not elite competition, who I think can bust the bracket for people, that's St. Louis. St. Louis is the top-scoring team in the country, or they have been for most of the year. It's just an electric offensive scheme, very dynamic, ton of break shooters. They could get into a game against a more talented team and just kind of run them off the court because they get hot.
And then Miami of Ohio, not Miami, Florida. We're talking Miami, Ohio. They're unbeaten in the MAC Conference, the Mid-American Conference. They've been in the news recently because people who are at Auburn, or former Auburn coaches, they don't deserve to be in the tournament if they lose a game because they haven't played a great schedule. That to me is like the definition of Cinderella. You have coaches or former coaches in major conferences saying you don't deserve to be there? Yes, put on your glass slipper and hit 18 three pointers in a game and beat Duke by 13. That's the dream for the Cinderella March Madness. So keep your eye on those two. One thing that's for sure, there will be a Cinderella. That is guaranteed. It'll be somebody. Every March has one. It could be a person, it could be a coach, it could be a team, but Cinderella will be there. She's out there waiting right now.
Dana Taylor:
And then any potential bracket busters?
Paul Myerberg:
Yeah, I would say those two teams, a team like I mentioned like Kentucky or North Carolina or Kansas, because they're so talented, they might get a low seed, like a six seed or a seven seed, which doesn't make sense when you look at the name, but just flip the switch. North Carolina with a player like Wilson who's been injured this season, flip the switch, get healthy, and make a run. So those are your bracket busters. They're not Cinderellas, but they are definitely bracket busters.
Dana Taylor:
Follow along with March Madness and all things sports with USA TODAY's Sports Seriously podcast. Paul Myerberg is a college sports reporter with USA TODAY. Paul, it was a pleasure speaking with you. Thank you so much for coming on The Excerpt.
Paul Myerberg:
Of course. Thank you so much for having me.
Dana Taylor:
Thanks to our senior producer, Kaely Monahan for her production assistance. Our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts@usatoday.com. Thanks for listening. I'm Dana Taylor. I'll be back Monday morning with another episode of USA TODAY's The Excerpt.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Which team is built to win March Madness this year | The Excerpt
On the Friday, March 13, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast:Bracket season is almost here. With conference tournaments ...
